Has Philly Turned a COVID Corner? This Pandemic Modeling Expert Is Optimistic

By David Murrell, Philadelphia Magazine | January 20, 2021

Former Stoneleigh Fellow and Board Member David Rubin spoke to Philadelphia magazine about reasons for optimism and caution around the COVID-19 pandemic.

David Rubin of the CHOP Policy Lab, along with a team of 15 researchers, has been modeling the course of the pandemic nationwide for months. Each week, using a variety of data including local case rates, social distancing (as measured through cell-phone tracking data), hospitalizations, population density and age, Rubin tries to project national trends — and future hot spots — for the next four weeks.

Lately, Rubin says, “When you look in the Philadelphia region, you see this sort of fragile equilibrium: We’re at very, very high case incidence, very high rates of hospitalization, and they’re neither growing nor declining.”

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