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CHOP model projects COVID-19 course in Philly, other densely-populated counties
By Michael Tanenbaum, Philly Voice | April 24, 2020
Former Board Member and Stoneleigh Fellow David Rubin spoke to Philly Voice about a new model that analyzes the competing influences of social distancing, population density and temperature in the spread of COVID-19.
A new COVID-19 model developed at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia is among the first in the United States to focus on county-level projections for coronavirus transmission, including communities across the Delaware Valley.
The model, created by CHOP’s PolicyLab in conjunction with the University of Pennsylvania, analyzes the competing influences of social distancing, population density and temperature in the spread of COVID-19.
Real-time data from 260 counties across the United States is used to project the risk of resurgent transmission in the scenario of communities partially reopening in mid-May, with potentially broader openings through the rest of spring and summer. The model represents approximately 58% of the U.S. population.